Ivy Zelman shares opening remarks at the Zelman Housing Summit

Another Zelman Housing Summit is in the rearview, giving investors, developers, owners, buyers, and lenders plenty to look forward to. Our very own Ivy Zelman led a powerful discussion on the current state of the housing market and how everything from demographics and affordability to building and the election cycle will impact it in the coming months.

In case you missed it, here’s a look back at Ivy’s insights and what’s in store for the housing market.

Ivy Zelman’s key takeaways

Ivy discussed several key themes that will shape the next year or more for real estate. Here’s a peek at her research and predictions.

We raised the forecast for household growth

Between 1-3 million new immigrants crossing the border and shifts in what constitutes a household, we’ve increased our household growth predictions to 12 percent by the end of 2030. Young adults will be leaving home, roommates are de-coupling, and immigration continues at a rapid pace.

However, there are still many barriers that are stifling household growth, including affordability and mortgage requirements.

Class A properties create new opportunities

It’s no surprise that more people are sharing the housing burden. Between a mortgage, homeowner’s insurance, and properties, that’s about 59 percent of a person’s income. Homeowners today tend to need a second income.

We’re seeing more households with $100K in income (a 54 percent increase), which is leading to a boom in Class A development. These properties are usually in wealthy neighborhoods with high-end materials, amenities, and aesthetics. This is where the demand is.

Compared to Class C properties between 2012 and 2024, we’re tracking a 200 percent increase in Class A homes. These higher-end homes are addressing how families or friends cohabitate rather than creating their own households.

We created the GDI Index

Builders are moving further out of cities to help offset land costs. To measure this, we created the GDI Index.

Think of it this way: New York City would be 100 on the GDI Index. It’s pricey and premium. Builders have been in the 11-18 range, which means they’re sprawling out more and building more value-priced homes. They can reduce their average selling prices and offer more product this way.

Ivy discussed the GDI Index and its significance in her session.

The election will create challenges no matter who wins

It’s Trump vs. Harris, and one of them will win. If Harris wins, one thing she’s talked about doing is giving every first-time home buyer $25,000 to use as a downpayment. Sounds great? It might do more harm than good. We don’t have a demand problem; we have a supply problem. Ivy sees it as having the potential to create more inflation and not solve the problems first-time home buyers are facing.

So, what happens if we get another Trump win? Less regulation, which could remove potential barriers to homeownership. Trump has shared his views on the mass eviction of illegal immigrants, which may free up inventory. But there’s no guarantee that’s what will happen. Also, the expected tariffs on Chinese goods mean higher product prices overall.

And building on federal land? An idea has been mentioned, and Ivy doesn’t hold back on the data.

Missed the Zelman Housing Summit? Hear Ivy’s full session

This is just a snippet of a data-rich session hosted by Ivy Zelman.

Didn’t get to hear Ivy Zelman live? We’ve got her session (and the rest of the Zelman Housing Summit) available on demand. Get it here.