MIPIM 2026: European real estate shows a more selective recovery

Conversations at MIPIM 2026 pointed to a more constructive backdrop for European real estate. Investors were notably more focused on where they could selectively re-enter the market as pricing expectations and financing conditions continued to stabilise.

“Capital is returning to European real estate, but it is doing so selectively, gravitating toward sectors such as living, logistics and data centres, where long-term fundamentals remain strongest.”
— Aaron Knight

That view was consistent across discussions with investors, lenders, and operators in Cannes. After the disruption of 2022 through 2024, stabilising debt costs (subject to recent Middle Eastern volatility) and price corrections in several markets have helped investor interest and expand deal pipelines. Even so, the tone is far from broad-based. Across EMEA commercial real estate, allocators remain focused on proven operators, best-in-class assets and sectors that can deliver durable returns. Many large pension funds and sovereign investors are waiting for clearer interest-rate signals before making major allocations to real estate.

The Living sector remains top of the Investment Agenda

Living has clearly maintained top of the investment agenda. Governments and cities are actively pitching pipelines to international investors, and residential sectors such as build-to-rent, student accommodation and senior living are attracting significant interest. Although planning and regulatory friction continues to constrain delivery in many markets, but the demand fundamentals are unmistakable.

A Widening Divide in the Office Market

Office tells a very different story. Demand has bifurcated between prime and secondary assets. Prime central office buildings in Europe’s largest cities continue to perform, while much of the secondary stock is now viewed as functionally obsolete and ripe for redevelopment. The most attractive opportunities are increasingly tied to active repositioning, including office redevelopment to meet modern occupational demands, office-to-residential conversion as well as mixed-use redevelopments that address local planning requirements.

The Refinancing Wave Ahead

Running alongside this sector rotation is a much larger structural issue. Loans put in place during the 2018 – 2022 period, where ultra-low rates were still available,  are either now coming to the end of their extension periods (structured in the 2023 – 2024 period) or coming to maturity and into a higher-rate, lower-valuation environment.

“A looming refinancing wall across ageing office and retail assets is likely to create a once-in-a-cycle opportunity for investors with patient capital and strong operational capabilities.”
— Claudio Sgobba

Industry estimates discussed during MIPIM point to cumulative refinancing needs across Western Europe of €750 billion to €1 trillion by 2030. Liquidity for those loans is aligned with mandatory building upgrades required to meet energy performance requirements through 2033, with a concentrated impact on living, offices, retail, and older commercial stock. To date, the lower-leverage environment post-GFC has delayed broader distress, combined with lenders willingness to grant loan extensions and sponsor’s to provide equity injections. However, market participants increasingly expect refinancing stress to build between 2026 and 2028, with some of the clearest transactional opportunities emerging between 2027 and 2029.

For investors, this points to a market that will reward patience, flexibility, and execution. Platform plays in residential, data centres and energy-resilient logistics continue to stand out, supported by supply constraints and long lease profiles. Distressed and rescue financings are also moving higher on the agenda, particularly as private credit providers continue stepping into the space left by constrained banks. Preferred equity, joint venture structures and staged capital solutions are becoming more relevant as tools to bridge refinancing gaps and manage downside risk.

2026 looks more like a year of re-pricing and selective deployment than one of full recovery. The more fertile window for acquisitions and platform roll-ups may come in 2027 through 2029. If housing shortages persist, replacement costs continue to rise and capital inflows strengthen, the sector could move into a more sustained upswing from 2028 onward.

The clearest message from MIPIM this year was that the market is entering a different phase. The next cycle will require hands-on asset management, balance-sheet flexibility, and technical execution combined with a thoughtful financing solution that allows for asset management flexibility.

As investors navigate this shifting landscape across living, logistics, data centres, offices and complex refinancing situations, Walker & Dunlop’s EMEA team is well positioned to advise across the full spectrum of capital solutions, asset strategies, and transaction opportunities.